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Residents of the Big Apple will find out the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who governs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democrats against each other. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has brought global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a platform of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about two million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly conclusion to an race that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with Americans' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the party arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of considered, lackluster resistance – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A New York defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani personally. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent elected, as other powerful voices have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has faced difficulties in the final phase, after video emerged appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd